THE BREAK POINT
Fritz does it again (C ATP Tour)
The new 12-day National Bank Open is a hardcourt gauntlet, more matches, no soft draws, and no time to recover. Taylor Fritz walked in looking built for it. Gabriel Diallo, Canada’s last man standing, looked like he’d already spent his legs in four matches over six days.
Fritz’s serve–forehand one-two was a scalpel: just 54% first serves in, but he won 88% of those points and killed Diallo’s only break chance with an ace at 4-3.
Canada’s last hope (C TSN)
Diallo’s 6 doubles and 33 unforced errors were oxygen leaks you can’t survive in this format. At Wimbledon, he dragged Fritz to five sets; in Toronto, he got bullied from the first game.
“I kind of let him push me around the court,” Diallo said. Fritz? Calm, clinical, and already playing like it’s the US Open’s second week. In this grind, the quick adapters, and the ones who can keep their serve sharp under heavy legs, will own the summer.
SOURCE: THE BREAK POINT
Last Night’s Plot Twists
Mboko against Gauff, exquisite! (C CBC)
Khachanov def. Ruud 6-4, 7-5 – Served like a vending machine (97% points won on first serve), shook off a late break, then won 8 of the last 9 points on serve to slam the door.
Rybakina def. Yastremska 5-7, 6-2, 7-5 – Down 4-5 in the third, she reeled off 8 of the last 10 points on serve, her 13 aces flipping the match from dicey to done.
Mboko def. Gauff 6-1, 6-4 – Hunted Gauff’s second serve like free candy, breaking 4 of 5 times and keeping 70% of rallies under five shots to blow the match open.
The Inside Scoop (No Ice Cream)
Mboko played like she didn’t know pressure was part of the sport. On every break point, she stepped in, saw second serve, and treated it like a drill. Gauff carried her misses like bricks in a backpack, 42% first serves in and six doubles turned into a slow bleed of confidence. When rallies got short, Mboko hit to win; when they got long, Gauff hit to avoid losing. In a grind like this, the mind that stays light moves fastest.
Matches You Can’t Ghost
Match
Tiafoe vs de Minaur – NBO, Center Court (5:30 PM BST)
Rublev vs Davidovich – NBO, Center Court (6:40 PM BST)
Osaka vs Sevastova – NBO, Center Court (6:40 PM BST)
INSIGHT: Sprinter vs marathoner in a match that could set the tone for US Open prep. If Tiafoe serves big, it’s a sprint; if de Minaur drags him into 15-shot rallies, it’s survival mode.
INSIGHT: Two human mood swings colliding. Rublev wants to end points in four shots; Davidovich wants him chasing drop shots and muttering. This one’s got racquet smash potential.
INSIGHT: Power meets puzzle-solving. Osaka’s hitting could blast through in an hour, or Sevastova could slice her into knots. Either way, it’s a chess match at 100 mph.
Picks I’ll Own or Delete
Drag Race vs Endurance Test – Tiafoe’s quick-strike game meets de Minaur’s lung-busting grind. The Aussie lives in service games, pounces on second serves, and survives two knife-edge breakers, 7-6, 7-6.
Smash or Chaos – Rublev swings like he’s trying to rip the fuzz clean off; Davidovich wants him scrambling after drop shots. If Rublev keeps 75%+ first-serve points, he escapes the mess 6-4, 3-6, 6-3, maybe after a racquet smash.
Slice Meets Spice – Osaka brings the fastball, Sevastova brings the mind games. At 62%+ first serves, Osaka blasts through 6-3, 6-4, with a few cat-and-mouse rallies to keep it spicy.
ARTICLE
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Fritz set the pace for this grind, Mboko lit the crowd on fire, and now the draw has teeth. Tonight, we find out if Tiafoe can sprint past the wall, if Rublev can survive the chaos, and if Osaka’s heat can melt the ice. The summer could flip overnight, come tell me in the Discord if you see it coming
Until next time,
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